Market Focus Analysis:
Pulse Focus 1: South Korea’s KOSPI index triggered another circuit breaker on Tuesday. The index fell by as much as 8% in early trading, triggering the circuit breaker and halting trading for 20 minutes. Earlier, the Korea Exchange had also briefly activated the KOSPI sidecar mechanism, suspending algorithmic sell orders on the KOSPI.
Focus Analysis: Reports indicate that China has achieved mass production of key equipment for photolithography machines, compounded by the impact of Changxin’s listing. Overnight, U.S. tech stocks sharply declined, with SK Hynix dropping over 7%. This directly triggered another collapse in South Korea’s stock market today.
Asset Reminder: The Nasdaq 100 index has broken below the 28,000 level, but short-term excessive bearish sentiment is not recommended. This is because the Fed’s meeting this week is unlikely to raise interest rates, and Powell may attempt to reduce rate hike expectations. Meanwhile, the PCE data is also expected to peak and decline. Therefore, favorable factors could emerge in the latter half of the week. Strategically, focus more on timing than price—ideally trade during Thursday daytime to capture potential bullish signals at the optimal moment.
Pulse Focus 2: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is visiting the U.S. under the pretext of mourning Senator Graham, planning to hold talks with Trump.
Focus Analysis: As the latest round of U.S.-Iran tensions enters a period of easing, Netanyahu’s visit to the United States could introduce new variables into future negotiations. While strategic retrenchment aligns with America’s broader interests, Netanyahu may constrain the U.S. in terms of concessions during talks, thereby prolonging the negotiation timeline.
Asset reminder: U.S. crude oil prices have continued to decline from above 90, currently hovering near the key 81 level, with further short-term downside expected. However, potential entry opportunities may require waiting for a price rebound that retests the liquidity around 82.50–83 before looking for bearish signals to sell.
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Gold: Early in the session, prices fell from around 4075 to the support zone of 4040/50, dragged down by the South Korean stock market’s circuit breaker. The price remains unstable at this point; if it breaks below 4040/50, it could drop further to 4000/10 before rebounding. However, if prices hold above 4040/50, they are likely to recover the earlier level of 4075. For detailed positioning, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: Price has broken below the 28,000 level, and current momentum is weak. We need to wait until the 27,950/28,000 level is regained before considering a pullback buy. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: Prices continue to trend sideways with a downward bias, and the main near-term outlook remains focused on rallies followed by pullbacks. After identifying opportunities to test higher liquidity levels during the day, keep an eye on 80 and lower levels. For detailed positioning, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute Chart)
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