Market Focus Analysis:
Pulse Focus 1: Iran launched another attack on U.S. military bases this morning, prompting a U.S. counterstrike. Earlier, Trump stated that negotiations with Iran had made progress; Iran also reported progress in talks with Oman regarding the joint management of the Strait of Hormuz.
Focus Analysis: The news of a potential conflict did not trigger market turmoil. On one hand, the market has shifted its focus to the Federal Reserve meeting; on the other, investors believe that the main negotiations are still ongoing, and the risk of escalation has become desensitized in the market.
Asset reminder: During daytime, London gold may see early short covering, with repeated tests of the resistance zone around 4040/50. Technically, this could manifest as a narrow sideways consolidation, followed by a potential breakout after the release of the Fed meeting results in the evening.
Pulse Focus 2: The Fed’s July meeting is about to be announced, with roughly 60% of market expectations anticipating no change in interest rates and around 40% expecting a rate hike.
Focus Analysis: We believe Wash’s underlying stance still favors rate cuts, so the current meeting is likely to result in a decision to maintain interest rates unchanged. Additionally, given recent declines in U.S. equities, if Wash’s post-meeting statement references this situation, it could be interpreted by the market as neutral to slightly dovish.
Asset Reminder: The Nasdaq 100 index has declined by over 10% from its recent high. If the Fed does not raise interest rates in July and Wash’s comments provide support, the index could see a corrective rebound. Our price expectation for the next 3–5 trading days is between 28,000 and 28,500, while the current price is around 27,700.
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Gold: After testing around 4010 overnight and stabilizing, the price may see early short covering during today’s trading session. We expect limited downside potential, though some volatility could occur. Therefore, we will wait for the price to consolidate and look for a rebound opportunity toward 4040. For detailed positioning, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: Prices continued to hit new lows overnight, but the downside momentum has weakened. For today, wait for prices to reclaim the near-term resistance at 27,800 before attempting to capture further rebound signals. For detailed levels, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: Prices continue to trend sideways with a downward bias, and the main near-term outlook remains focused on rallies followed by pullbacks. After identifying opportunities to test higher liquidity levels during the day, keep an eye on 80 and lower levels. For detailed positioning, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute Chart)
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Today’s key financial data and events to watch:
22:30 U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventory for the Week Ending July 24 (in thousands of barrels)
02:00 Federal Reserve July meeting
02:30 Federal Reserve Chair’s post-meeting statement and press conference
