Market Focus Analysis:
Pulse Focus 1: The U.S. June PCE annual rate was 3.7%, and the core annual rate was 3.3%, both down from previous levels, aligning with market expectations. Meanwhile, the U.S. second-quarter GDP came in at just 1.5%, significantly below the expected 2.1%.
Focus Analysis: The PCE data declined as expected, further reinforcing the conclusion that inflation has peaked. Meanwhile, the sharp drop in GDP suggests weak economic performance. We believe the Fed will not raise interest rates in July, and it is even less likely to do so in September. Going forward, we recommend monitoring nonfarm employment data to confirm our above outlook.
Asset Alert: If the Fed does not raise interest rates, gold and the Nasdaq will likely continue their short-covering rally. Watch for support at 4060/80 and 4030/50 for gold; limited pullbacks may present rebound signals.
Pulse Focus 2: The USD/JPY price dropped sharply overnight from 163 to 157, with clear signs of intervention by the Bank of Japan.
Focus Analysis: The Bank of Japan has shifted from its aggressive intervention approach in May to a more targeted strategy, seizing opportunities with precision. Taking advantage of the Federal Reserve’s pause on rate hikes, declining U.S. GDP, and falling PCE data, this latest intervention by the BOJ can be seen as a signal of its bearish outlook on the dollar in the short term.
Asset Alert: The US dollar index broke below the 100.60 level overnight, with this decline pushing it below 100 and hitting a one-and-a-half-month low. There are signs of a technical breakout, which could shift the recent sideways consolidation pattern into a volatile downward trend. Watch for new shorting signals if prices retest the 100.40/100.60 zone.
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Gold: After yesterday’s price retraced into the green zone and briefly broke below, it quickly reversed with a V-shaped rebound. Following a breakout above 4115, another upward bounce occurred after retesting the blue zone. Today, we will focus on the liquidity sweep in the yellow zone; once completed, look for long-side rebound signals. For detailed levels, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: Prices rebounded strongly, reclaiming the 28,000 level; further short covering is likely to continue. Today, we focus on capturing long-side rebound signals after liquidity sweeps in the yellow zone. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: Prices have slowly broken below the key resistance level at 83.50, but haven’t yet accelerated downward. Today, we will monitor for a pullback near 83.50 to retest liquidity before looking for shorting signals on the subsequent decline. For detailed levels, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute Chart)
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