Market Focus Analysis:
Pulse Focus 1: U.S. President Trump said late Saturday evening, Eastern Time, that the United States has postponed a new round of military strikes against Iran after Iran and other Middle Eastern countries stated they were pushing for an agreement that could potentially reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Focus Insight: Trump has made another move at the last minute, leading markets to reasonably speculate that $90–$95 is already the upper limit President Trump can tolerate for U.S. crude oil prices. Once prices approach or exceed this level, the frequency of his interventions will only increase.
Asset alert: U.S. crude oil prices plunged 8% at Monday’s open. Intraday resistance lies at 82/83 and 85; rebounds should be monitored primarily for new bearish signals. If a new consolidation zone forms around the 80/81 area during the day, watch for signs of a direct breakdown. Key downside targets are 78 and 75.
Pulse Focus 2: U.S. Treasury Secretary Ben Bernanke confirmed that the United States had intervened jointly with Japan in the yen exchange rate. Bernanke stated, “We strongly support Japan’s decisive market and monetary measures to correct the significant undervaluation of the yen.”
Focus Analysis: Japan’s foreign exchange intervention bullets are limited; if it wants to intervene long-term, it can only sell U.S. Treasury bonds. Currently, the interest rates on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries stand at around 4.7% and 5.2%, respectively—both at historically high levels. The United States is thus forced to accommodate Japan’s intervention efforts in order to protect demand for U.S. Treasuries.
Asset reminder: Rising real interest rates may actually prompt Trump to resolve the Middle East conflict more quickly. Meanwhile, with major hedge funds collapsing in last week’s U.S. stock market, short-term risks have already been cleared. We remain bullish on the Nasdaq 100 index this week, expecting a rebound. Key support levels to watch are 28,000 and 28,200, with potential upside targets at 29,000 and 29,500.
Plugin Case Showcase
WeChat features may be temporarily restricted. If you’d like to try the plugin, please add us as a friend and note “plugin trial” in the message, along with your contact information so we can easily get back to you!
Gold: After breaking below the yellow zone we highlighted in our plugin on Friday, a V-shaped rebound occurred. Today, we are closely monitoring whether support holds around 4050 and whether prices can push further toward 4100 following a test of 4080. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
The plugin is updated daily from 12:00 to 13:00. To try the same plugin shown in the image, please contact V: krabs1942 and leave your contact information so we can add you back.
Nasdaq: After the price dropped below the yellow zone as signaled by our plugin, a clear V-shaped rebound emerged. We will continue monitoring this pattern throughout the day, but today’s priority is on near-term liquidity sweeps. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
The plugin is updated daily from 12:00 to 13:00. To try the same plugin shown in the image, please contact V: krabs1942 and leave your contact information so we can add you back.
Crude oil: After a sharp 8% drop at the opening, prices are currently consolidating at lower levels. If there’s an early signal of breaking below the trendline, consider entering with caution. We will also keep an eye on the subsequent decline following any rebound and after clearing liquidity in the yellow zone. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute Chart)
The plugin is updated daily from 12:00 to 13:00. If you’d like to try the same plugin shown in the image, please contact V: krabs1942 and leave your contact information so we can add you back.
Today’s key financial data and events to watch:
22:00 U.S. July ISM Manufacturing PMI
