Market Focus Analysis:
Pulse Focus 1: U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as early as Wednesday. According to two regional sources and a U.S. official, the United States, Iran, and Oman are nearing a temporary deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. planning to announce it on Wednesday.
Focus Analysis: Our interpretation yesterday already highlighted the U.S.’s strong desire and urgency in negotiations. Today’s news from Bernanke indirectly confirms our analysis. We believe that the second round of U.S.-Iran talks is progressing steadily and could be announced at any moment.
Asset Reminder: WTI crude oil prices have declined from around 82.50 down to below 75, largely in line with our forecast and target expectations yesterday. We believe oil prices may fluctuate within a broad range of 65–85 going forward. Currently, the price is in a downward phase testing levels below 70 after a move from higher levels. We will continue monitoring the 70 and 68 levels ahead.
Pulse Focus 2: The U.S. June JOLTS job openings stood at 7.359 million, down from the previous reading of 7.537 million. The continued sharp decline in job vacancies suggests structural imbalances in the labor market.
Focus Insight: The ISM employment component has improved, but the JOLTS job openings have declined, suggesting that manufacturing employment in the ISM survey was previously too weak and the rebound is merely a correction. This does not conflict with the decline in JOLTS job openings.
Asset reminder: The price surged overnight, briefly exceeding 29,800, having already achieved our weekly target of 29,500. We remain bullish on a rebound toward the 30,000 level, which could happen relatively quickly. However, in the latter half of the week, we should approach prices above 30,000 with caution.
Plugin Case Showcase
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Gold: The buying opportunity at the blue zone breakout level of 4075, which was signaled by the plugin yesterday, has been perfectly realized. Currently, the price has moved above to around 4130, but priority should still be given to potential buying opportunities on a pullback near 4100. For exact positions, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: Yesterday, the plugin alerted us to a direct breakout above the blue zone’s buy stop, delivering a nearly 9-to-1 risk-reward ratio—highly effective. The price has been consolidating at higher levels intraday, and we believe it may quickly test the 30,000 level, so we recommend attempting a buy stop trade. However, remain cautious above 30,000. For precise entry points, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: After the liquidity in the yellow zone—highlighted by the plugin yesterday—was cleared (although the yellow zone was not breached), prices quickly reversed and sharply declined below 75. For today, we will continue our unchanged strategy of targeting short signals by scanning for upward liquidity. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute Chart)
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Today’s key financial data and events to watch:
20:15 U.S. July ADP Employment Change (in thousands)
21:45 U.S. July S&P Global Services PMI Final Value
22:00 U.S. July ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
