The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 5.27% on Monday, its highest level since 2007. The recent bond market sell-off may persist. Rising oil prices have further fueled market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield higher.
However, Simon Penn, an analyst at UBS, pointed out in a recent report that this aggressive bet overlooks Washington’s most fundamental political operating rule.
Over the past 35 years since 1990, apart from the Fed’s recent rate hike in September 2026, only three other times—2004, 2018, and 2022—has the Fed raised interest rates during the election-year month of September.
After already completing the rare fourth pre-election rate hike in September, markets are now betting on another hike as early as October 28—a move UBS considers politically illogical.
Chris Larkin of E*Trade, part of Morgan Stanley, said: “With yields and oil prices rising, the broader market hasn’t gained much momentum. Given the Fed’s current focus on inflation, unless labor market data this week delivers a major surprise, market performance is likely to lag behind interest rate and energy markets.”
On Monday, Nvidia (NVDA) announced that its board had expanded its share repurchase program by $150 billion, using its strong balance sheet to buy back stock. Following the announcement, shares rose 1.2% in pre-market trading.
This additional $150 billion brings Nvidia’s total authorized share buyback amount to $235 billion—the largest such program in U.S. history, according to Bloomberg data.
Nevertheless, the Nasdaq rally failed to hold. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.3%.
Rising oil prices, stronger U.S. business activity, and concerns over high government debt triggered the largest sell-off in U.S. Treasuries since President Trump introduced his tariff plan in April 2025. Soaring yields have begun weighing on equities, as higher borrowing costs cast shadows over economic growth and corporate earnings prospects.
Plugin Case Examples
Gold: Prices dropped more than 4% yesterday, beginning to consolidate overnight in North American trading hours. Today, we need to monitor whether the consolidation breaks upward before considering any further corrective rebound. If prices break downward instead, a new consolidation pattern may form, so it’s advisable to remain cautious and wait.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
Nasdaq: Yesterday, after breaking through the yellow liquidity zone highlighted by our plugin, prices reversed with a V-shape, but failed to sustain above that level. Today, we will continue monitoring liquidity around the 30,000 level and await signals of momentum breakout.
(Nasdaq 15-minute chart)
Crude Oil: Prices fluctuated around the 95–96 range yesterday. Although news-driven currently, traders should use the outcome of the battle for the 95–96 zone as a reference for long or short positions. A drop below 95 suggests a short bias; a close above 97 favors a short-term long position.
(Crude Oil 15-minute chart)
Key Financial Data and Events Today:
22:00 – U.S. JOLTS job openings for August will be released; market expectation: 7.24 million; previous: 7.271 million
22:00 – U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for September will be released; market expectation: 90; previous: 89.4
01:00 – Goolsbee, 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed president, will speak
01:30, 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Mousaalem delivers a speech at the London School of Economics
02:00, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams gives a keynote address at the University at Buffalo
