Market Focus Analysis:
Pulse Focus 1: The U.S. launched a new round of airstrikes against Iran and revoked an exemption allowing it to sell oil globally, further endangering the peace agreement between the two sides following a surge in attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Focus Analysis: The resumption of conflict between the U.S. and Iran has pushed oil prices higher, but it is highly unlikely that President Trump will allow the situation to regress to the war-like conditions seen in April and May before the November midterm elections. Therefore, we initially assess this development as merely a temporary episode. However, we should still remain vigilant about Iran’s response.
Asset reminder: WTI crude oil remains generally bearish. If prices face resistance around 72.50/73, a subsequent pullback toward 71 and 70 is likely. Alternatively, if prices break above the overnight high and clear the liquidity cluster near 73, priority should be given to monitoring the potential downside (bearish) signal following this breakout.
Pulse Focus 2: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, signaling a possible continuation of tightening policy.
Focus Insight: New Zealand’s economy was already on a recovery track prior to the Middle East conflict, but economic momentum weakened in the June quarter due to the impact of oil prices. With inflation still above target levels and the central bank expecting stronger economic activity, further reductions in monetary stimulus may be needed to bring inflation back to the 2% midpoint target. The New Zealand dollar could outperform among non-dollar currencies.
Asset reminder: Resistance for NZD/USD is at 0.5730; a break above this level could open the door for further gains toward 0.58. For AUD/NZD, key support lies in the 1.2050–1.2110 range; a drop below this zone may signal a short-term top, with downside targets at 1.19 and 1.18.
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Gold: Although prices surged overnight and then pulled back, the overall trend remains within a channel pattern. Consider buying at the lower end of the channel during the day. If prices subsequently continue to rebound and break above the upper boundary of the channel, you may consider adding more positions. For detailed entry points, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
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Nasdaq: Price has been retracing continuously below 2900; a clear stabilization signal is needed within the day. We recommend waiting for a recovery above 29450 before considering a buy limit order on the retest of the blue zone. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(NASDAQ 15-minute chart)
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Crude oil: Prices surged above 72 overnight due to the U.S. resuming attacks on Iran. Today, focus on the liquidity sweep around 73; if a bearish signal appears afterward, consider a single attempt. For detailed positions, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute Chart)
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Today’s key financial data and events to watch:
22:30 U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventory for the Week Ending July 3 (in thousands of barrels)
