Market Focus Analysis:
Pulse Focus 1: According to Fox News reporter Trey Yingst, in a phone interview, Trump stated that if Oman intervenes in U.S. blockades targeting Iranian vessels, the United States will take action. “If Oman gets in our way, we’ll blow them to smithereens.”
Focus Interpretation: The current market consensus is that the U.S. and Iran won’t return to the war-like state seen in April-May. If a full-scale conflict isn’t on the horizon, then reaching an agreement inevitably requires Oman as an intermediary. Trump’s threatening remarks toward Oman reflect his impatience—paradoxically, this could actually accelerate progress toward a deal.
Asset Reminder: London gold hit a low of 4377 yesterday, rebounding to 4436 after clearing liquidity, as expected. However, a clear one-way trend has yet to emerge. Going forward, prices are likely to remain range-bound. With Trump’s latest comments, volatility may widen slightly; watch the 4365–4450 zone closely.
Pulse Focus 2: U.S. Treasury data shows that in June, holdings of U.S. Treasuries by the UK, Japan, and China all declined compared to May. Japan held $1.117 trillion, down $26.4 billion from May; the UK held $939.9 billion, down $8.7 billion; and China held $633.4 billion, down $26 billion.
Focus Interpretation: Despite declining expectations for U.S. employment, inflation, retail sales, and Fed rate hikes, long-term U.S. Treasury yields continue to surge, signaling substantial damage to the dollar’s credibility. Currently, the main face of dollar assets lies in equities—especially tech stocks—so trading strategies should continue seeking long opportunities.
Asset Reminder: The Nasdaq 100 index dropped overnight below 30,000. Watch for a rebound signal following liquidity cleansing near 29,700.
Plugin Case Examples
Gold: After breaking above 4412 yesterday, price retraced to the blue zone indicated by our plugin, triggering a bounce back to 4436. Today, we continue monitoring the yellow zone below for liquidity cleansing, awaiting a potential V-shaped reversal. For exact levels, please consult the plugin.
(Gold 15-minute chart)
Nasdaq: Yesterday, our plugin’s buy-stop signal at the blue zone delivered two consecutive trades with a 2:1 risk-reward ratio. Today, we recommend watching for a V-shaped reversal signal after liquidity cleansing around 29,700. For precise entry points, please consult the plugin.
(Nasdaq 15-minute chart)
Crude Oil: Price broke above 84 yesterday but failed to trigger a break below 83.17 upon pullback. Today, we maintain a short position strategy based on a potential rally followed by a sell-off. For detailed positioning, please consult the plugin.
(Crude Oil 15-minute chart)
Key Financial Data & Events Today:
14:00 UK 3-Month ILO Unemployment Rate (June)
17:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)
20:30 US New Homes Starts (Annualized, Thousands) (July)
