Top Forecast Expert: U.S./Japan Target 147

Neil Parker, a globally renowned yen exchange-rate expert, said the yen will rise to 147 yen per dollar next year as the interest-rate gap between Japan and the United States narrows, from its current level of around 158.
Parker has tracked yen exchange-rate movements for more than 30 years and has lived through multiple economic crisis cycles. He is currently the top-ranked Bloomberg yen forecaster.
His forecast shows that he remains bullish despite the current sharp divergence in the market. Parker expects the yen to rise to around 155 by year-end, with further appreciation possible afterward.
The core of the divergence lies in Japan’s interest-rate outlook. Parker expects the Bank of Japan to raise its benchmark rate from 1.25% to at least 2%, and possibly to 2.25%, a tightening pace more aggressive than the market’s broad expectations. Meanwhile, Parker believes the Federal Reserve may raise rates again in December, after which rates will remain in a range of around 4.00% to 4.25%.
Japanese market participants are divided on whether stronger inflation will prompt the central bank to accelerate tightening. The core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh food and energy and is closely watched by the Bank of Japan as a gauge of underlying inflation, rose 2.4% in September.
Parker said that if the CPI rises to 2.6% or higher, it could prompt the central bank to take a tougher stance and accelerate the tightening process. But he also believes the central bank is unlikely to act in December.
His yen forecast is based precisely on the difference in the pace of rate hikes between Japan and the United States. He said that if the interest-rate gap between Japan and the United States narrows by another 50 basis points—roughly the level Parker expects it to reach in the middle to late part of next year—it would be enough to reset investor expectations. “Investors don’t necessarily have to increase their holdings of Japanese assets,” he said. “They just need to reduce their selling.”
Year to date, the yen has averaged around 158 per dollar against the U.S. dollar, and in July it briefly fell to 163.99 yen per dollar before Japanese and U.S. authorities intervened. The market’s sharp volatility has tested Parker’s forecast, but he is unwilling to change his view unless the economic fundamentals supporting it change.
Parker said that when making forecasts, “one of the things I do is try to filter out a lot of noise. I focus only on a few key macroeconomic factors, rather than every speech, comment or other remark made by Japan and other major economies.”
Parker began working in financial markets in 1995 and has followed the trends of the yen and other major currencies for decades. He joined London-based TTT Moneycorp in 2025. TTT Moneycorp is a foreign exchange and payments company that also ranks among the top in Bloomberg’s latest euro/dollar and U.S. dollar/Swiss franc forecast rankings.